Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Air pollution and infant mortality: evidence from Turkey

1103
The widespread replacement of coal with natural gas as Turkey’s key energy source over the past 25 years has led to much improved air quality. This column reports research showing that the environmental benefits of the transition to natural gas have resulted in a significant reduction in infant mortality.

In a nutshell

Deployment of a nationwide natural gas infrastructure in Turkey led to an improvement in air quality as measured by particulate matter and sulphur dioxide.

A one percentage point increase in the use of natural gas for heating and cooking in a Turkish province leads to a fall in the infant mortality rate of 4%.

That translates into roughly 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

There is little dispute over the harmful effects of coal use on health. Despite this consensus, global coal consumption continues to rise and now presents a significant threat to some of the gains in public health outcomes achieved in developing countries in recent decades.

To complicate matters, there are very few viable policy options or enforcement mechanisms available to developed countries or international environmental organisations that could induce developing countries to take meaningful steps towards addressing environmental problems.

One policy instrument that is commonly used to control air pollution is regulation. But there are severe challenges of implementing regulation successfully, especially in developing countries, due to problems of weak governance and corruption. Furthermore, concerns about global climate change are often side-lined in these countries due to a strong desire to maintain robust economic growth.

Under these circumstances, natural gas is emerging as an increasingly attractive source of fuel and one that could help efforts to limit carbon emissions globally without causing interruptions in the mounting energy needs of these countries in the short run. After all, the combustion of natural gas emits virtually no sulphur oxide, which is a key component of acid rain. Emissions of total particulate matter, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide are also much lower from burning natural gas compared with coal.

In our research, we assess whether the economic and environmental benefits of natural gas in comparison with coal translate into reduced infant mortality. To test this hypothesis, we consider the gradual displacement of coal by natural gas caused by the deployment of a nationwide natural gas infrastructure in Turkey.

To tease out the effect of switching from coal use to natural gas on infant mortality, we exploit the variation in the deployment of natural gas networks across provinces and over time. We first establish that this development has led to an improvement in air quality as measured by particulate matter and sulphur dioxide.

On establishing this connection between natural gas networks and air quality, we demonstrate that these networks caused a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality in Turkey.

In particular, we find that a one percentage point increase in the use of natural gas for heating and cooking in a Turkish province leads to a fall in the infant mortality rate of 4%. That translates into roughly 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

Our study represents the first attempt by researchers to examine the effect of a nationwide change in a fuel delivery system on infant health. With the popularity of natural gas gaining momentum thanks to new discoveries of gas fields and technological advances in extraction techniques, our results reveal the big potential environmental and health benefits of making such a change.

Further reading

Cesur, Resul, Erdal Tekin and Aydogan Ulker (2017) ‘Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure’, Economic Journal 127(600): 330-62.

Tags: , , , ,

Most read

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.

Qatarisation: playing the long game on workforce nationalisation

As national populations across the Gulf have grown and hydrocarbon reserves declined, most Gulf countries have sought to move to a more sustainable economic model underpinned by raising the share of citizens in the productive private sector. But, as this column explains, Qatar differs from its neighbours in several important ways that could render aggressive workforce nationalization policies counterproductive. In terms of such policies, the country should chart its own path.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.

Macroeconomic policy-making for sustainable development in Egypt

In recent years, economic policy in Egypt has been focused primarily on macroeconomic stabilisation to curb inflation, to reduce the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit, and to increase GDP growth. As this column explains, this has come at the expense of the country’s progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, which is rather modest compared with other economies in the region or at the same income level. Sustainable development needs to be more integrated with the conception and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies.

Education and health in Tunisia: is human capital at risk?

Tunisia has made significant strides in enhancing the skills, knowledge and health of its population, all cornerstones of economic growth and social progress. This column examines the state of the country’s education and healthcare systems, identifying structural weaknesses that could jeopardise human capital and, by extension, progress towards achieving the sustainable development goals.

Qatar’s pursuit of government excellence: promises and pitfalls

As Qatar seeks to make the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified, knowledge-based economy, ‘government excellence’ has been identified as a key strategic objective. This column reports what government effectiveness means in terms of delivery of public services, digitalisation of services, and control of corruption – and outlines the progress made to date on these development priorities and what the country needs to do to meet its targets.