Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Semih Tumen

Author

Semih Tumen
Director General of the Structural Economic Research Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Content by this Author

Student protests in 1970s Turkey: the impact on later lives

From the Arab Spring to the ‘gilets jaunes’ in France and from anti-Revolution protests in Iran to Hong Kong’s umbrella revolution, it is common to see mass socio-political movements in the early twenty-first century. This column looks back to earlier uprisings – the Turkish student protests that took place between 1978 and 1980 and eventually led to a military coup in 1980 – to explore how exposure to violent political turmoil affects people’s educational and labour market outcomes later in life.

Post-conflict economic reconstruction in the Arab world

What have been the economic costs of conflict in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen? And what are the prospects for post-conflict reconstruction in these countries and repatriation of some of the millions of refugees who have fled to safety? This column highlights the extent of the damage caused by war and outlines three scenarios for what comes next.

Measuring economic destruction in Syria from outer space

How is Syria’s civil conflict affecting the economy? This column analyses data on night-light intensity measured by satellites to assess the extent of the destruction of economic activity across the country. Without a strong programme of economic rebuilding when the conflict finally ends, the return of approximately 5.6 million registered refugees to Syria will not happen any time soon.

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Global value chains and sustainable development

What is the role of exchange rate undervaluation in promoting participation in global value chains by firms in developing countries? What is the impact of the stringency of national environmental regulations on firms’ GVC participation? And how do firms’ political connections affect their participation in GVCs? These questions will be explored for the MENA region at a special session of the ERF annual conference, which takes place in Cairo in April 2025.

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.




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