Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Samir Makdisi

Founding contributors

Samir Makdisi
American University of Beirut

Samir Makdisi is professor emeritus of economics and founding director of the Institute of Financial Economics, the American University of Beirut (AUB). He has served as Minister of Economy and Trade, Republic of Lebanon, 1992 and Deputy President of AUB, 1992-1998; member of the Board of Trustees of the Economic Research Forum and of the Board of Directors of the Euro-Mediterranean Econom-ic Research Institutes (FEMISE). He received his Ph.D in Economics from Columbia University.

Content by this Author

Moving beyond the Arab uprisings

Despite the popular movements for freedom and justice in several Arab countries a little over a decade ago, the region continues to be classified at the bottom of the world table of democracy. Nevertheless, this column argues, the uprisings have rung in the changes of an inevitable and deep-seated political and economic transformation in the Arab region: a change in the social contract is in the making, though its path and inception time remain uncertain.

After the Arab uprisings: reconstruction, peace and democratic change

Any post-uprisings transformation leading to lasting national peace in Arab countries will be conditional on laying the foundations for inclusive socio-economic development in the context of a genuinely democratic environment. This column, which summarises a forthcoming multi-authored ERF book explores how these goals can be achieved.

On Lebanon’s economic crisis and recourse to IMF assistance

Failures of fiscal policy, monetary policy and banking practices have led to economic crisis in Lebanon. This column argues that the focus of the new government’s plan for national recovery should be on fiscal governance and policy measures that constitute the bedrock for reforms in other areas of economic policy. Assistance from the International Monetary Fund can support their implementation and an effective rescue programme.

Repatriation of refugees from Arab conflicts: scenarios for reconstruction

The prospects for early repatriation of refugees who have fled conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen in recent years do not yet look promising. Nevertheless, not only have discussions about repatriation started at both national and international levels, but there is also a steady, though still limited, stream of refugees in neighbouring countries trickling back to their war-ravaged homes. This column summarises the latest ERF-FEMISE Euromed Report, which discusses the issue of repatriation in general and as a potential solution to the refugee crisis.

Sustainability of GCC development under the new global oil order

It is now a widely held view that the price of oil will eventually be converging to a lower long-term trend. Together with growing demands for political change in the MENA region, this implies the need for many countries to reconsider their growth models and their underlying social contract. This column considers the implications for the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

On autocracy, democracy and populism: Tunisia and the wider Arab region

Different circumstances offer different opportunities for the emergence of populism. This column contrasts the rise of populist movements in the established democracies of the West with the uprisings against entrenched autocracies in the Arab region. While many of the latter have been reversed or sparked civil conflict, there is hope in Tunisia’s gradual transition towards consolidating a fully-fledged democracy.

Prospects for a closely integrated Euro-Arab Mediterranean region

The Euro-Med partnership of over 40 countries aims for closer integration of the region, fostering the development and stability of the southern and eastern members, and narrowing economic and political gaps between North and South. This column explores its prospects, concluding that the rationale for a politically integrated Euro-Arab Med region does not seem to have been adequately thought out: it is a matter that deserves deep study.

Prospects for development with democracy in the Arab world

What are the prospects for democracy in the Arab world? This column expresses the hope that as conflict-afflicted countries embark on their programmes of economic reconstruction, autocratic institutions will not be re-established under the pretext of the need for a speedy and steady recovery. The optimal path of development necessarily includes robust growth, equity as well as democracy.

forum Talks – Reconstruction and development

Samir Makdisi highlights the importance of clearly identifying funding, human and physical capital requirements to address reconstruction priorities.

Most read

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector

Three big economies in Asia are achieving carbon neutrality in construction. This column draws lessons from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand – and explains why, given the vast solar potential and growing focus on environmental, social and governance matters in the Middle East and North Africa, governments in the region must adopt similarly ambitious policies and partnerships.

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

How does reliance on oil revenues shape economic behaviour worldwide? This column reports new research showing that oil rents weaken governance, eroding patience – a key driver of economic growth and, according to the 13th century Persian poet Rumi, ‘the key to joy’. Policy measures to counter the damage include enhancing transparency in oil revenue management, strengthening independent oversight institutions and ensuring that sovereign wealth funds have robust rules of governance.

Artificial intelligence and the future of employment in MENA

Artificial intelligence offers opportunities for boosting productivity and innovation. But it also poses substantial threats to traditional employment structures, particularly in economies like those in the Middle East and North Africa that are reliant on low-skill or routine labour. This column explores how AI is likely to affect employment across the region and proposes policy directions for governments to harness AI for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Freedom, agency and material conditions: human development in MENA

Conventional approaches to measuring human development, which are primarily centred on income, health and education, provide an incomplete assessment of people’s opportunities to improve their lives. As this column explains, it is essential to understand how institutional and social environments influence individuals’ agency over their development outcomes. Analysis of the diverse recent experiences of Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia illustrates how such an approach can inform policy-making.

Fiscal limits and debt sustainability in MENA economies

Public debt is piling up across the Middle East and North Africa after years of political upheavals, economic shocks and the Covid-19 pandemic. With fiscal space shrinking, governments are under pressure to act. This column explains why for many countries in the region, the room for manoeuvre on the public finances may be smaller than policy-makers think. Urgent action is needed to restore debt sustainability.

Market integration in the Middle East and the Balkans, 1560-1914

Trade has re-emerged as a central issue in global policy debates, as governments debate not only the costs and benefits of trade, but also the underlying determinants of market integration. To inform the discussion, this column reports new research evidence on the experiences of the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East and the Balkans over nearly four centuries, tracing the evolution, drivers and consequences of trade integration across these regions.

From rentier states to innovation economies: is a MENA transition possible?

The combination of climate change, energy price volatility, high unemployment among educated youth, and global technological competition is exposing the vulnerabilities of MENA’s traditional economic structures and the need for structural transformation. This column examines whether such a transition is feasible and the policies that could promote such a shift.




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