Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Natural disaster literacy in Iran: survey evidence from Tehran

1292
The frequent floods, earthquakes, and heat waves in the Middle East and North Africa underscore the urgent need to assess the region's preparedness for natural disasters. This column summarizes the state of 'natural disaster literacy' in various parts of Tehran, the capital of Iran and one of the most populous metropolitan areas in MENA. Data from a survey conducted in the winter of 2020/21 enabled the development of a disaster literacy index, which helps to identify the city's most vulnerable districts.

In a nutshell

Disaster literacy in Tehran is higher in households with higher income levels, greater trust in Iran’s natural disaster management, a stronger fear of natural disasters, a higher perceived frequency of natural disasters, and greater internet usage.

The wealthier northern districts of Tehran have significantly higher disaster literacy than the poorer southern districts; specialised disaster training programmes can be effective, especially if targeted at low-income households.

Efforts to build trust between citizens and the organisations responsible for disaster management, along with educating people about the potential risks and frequency of disasters in the region, can help motivate them to be better prepared.

Iran is a disaster-prone country that has experienced more than 250 natural disasters over the past century, including floods, earthquakes, droughts and storms. These disasters have affected more than 60 million people, killed at least 158,350, and caused an estimated damage of more than US$53 billion (EM-DAT 2021). Several recent studies have addressed the socio-economic effects of various types of natural disasters and climate change in Iran (Farzanegan, Feizi, and Gholipour 2021; Farzanegan, Gholipour, and Javadian 2023; Farzanegan and Fischer 2023; Fischer 2021).

In a recent study (Farzanegan et al 2024), we provide new empirical evidence on the individual characteristics that shape disaster preparedness and disaster literacy in Iran. The analysis adds new insights to previous studies on disaster literacy, which, apart from two recent case studies from Turkey (Genc et al. 2022; Türker and Sözcü 2021), mainly focus on regions other than the Middle East and North Africa.

Disaster literacy, closely related to concepts such as disaster experience, risk perception, and disaster preparedness, can be defined as “an individual’s capacity to read, understand, and use information to make informed decisions and follow instructions in the context of mitigating, preparing, responding, and recovering from a disaster” (Brown, Haun, and Peterson 2014). Brown et al (2014) developed a model with four stages of disaster literacy that we use in our study: basic disaster literacy, functional disaster literacy, interactive disaster literacy, and critical disaster literacy.

Several previous studies have addressed the topic of disaster literacy using different definitions and approaches and focusing on different countries, such as Taiwan (Chung and Yen 2016), China (Zhang et al. 2021), Nigeria (Daramola, Odunsi, and Olowoporoku 2018) and Turkey (Genc et al. 2022). These studies highlight the importance of school curricula that equip students with disaster recognition knowledge. These empirical studies reveal that socio-economic characteristics such as age, field of study, grade, place of residence, educational level of parents, and employment positively affect disaster literacy. Additionally, the experience of natural disasters, previous disaster training, and preparation within the family also enhance disaster literacy. However, these studies commonly find that participants typically have, at best, mediocre levels of disaster literacy.

Research question, data and methodology

The research question of our study is: What are the main determinants of disaster literacy within the population of Tehran? After identifying these determinants, we create a Disaster Literacy Index (DLI) with four stages.

To answer this question, we analyzed survey data from 502 respondents in Tehran, collected in December and January 2021. The representative survey was conducted by IranPoll and financially supported by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, Institute of International Education (IIE), and the IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund.

Our objective is to understand how disaster literacy is associated with previous experience with natural disasters, emotions towards natural disasters, level of education, household income, and institutional trust. This leads to the following five hypotheses:

  1. Hypothesis 1: Having experienced natural disasters is associated with a higher probability of being disaster literate.
  2. Hypothesis 2: Fearing natural disasters is associated with a higher probability of being disaster literate.
  3. Hypothesis 3: A higher level of education is associated with a higher probability of being disaster literate.
  4. Hypothesis 4: Being from a wealthier household is associated with a higher probability of being disaster literate.
  5. Hypothesis 5: Trusting Iran’s natural disaster management is associated with a higher probability of being disaster literate.

Findings

The results of the empirical investigation suggest that household income level, trust in Iran’s natural disaster management, fear of natural disasters, perceived frequency of natural disasters, and internet usage are all positively associated with natural disaster literacy.

Additionally, we created a Disaster Literacy Index (DLI) for Tehran, ranging from 0 to 100, using 14 natural disaster literacy indicators. This index ranges from 0, indicating no disaster literacy, to 100, representing the highest possible disaster literacy. The aim is to capture the four stages of disaster literacy discussed by Brown et al (2014).

Regarding the hypotheses, the results indicate that fear (Hypothesis 2), income (Hypothesis 4), and trust (Hypothesis 5) are positively associated with DLI scores, while experience (Hypothesis 1) and education (Hypothesis 3) do not show statistically significant results at conventional levels. For instance, respondents who trust Iran’s disaster management have, on average, a DLI score 5.5 points higher than the average respondent in the sample, and those who reported a high income have, on average, a DLI score 5.0 points higher.

When comparing the average DLI scores of the northern and southern districts, spatial inequality within Tehran becomes evident. The northern subsample has significantly higher DLI scores than the southern subsample (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Average DLI in Tehran’s phone districts
Source: Farzanegan et al (2024)

Conclusion

The research findings highlight the limited impact of natural disaster experience and formal education on natural disaster literacy, emphasizing the effectiveness of specialized disaster training programs, especially those targeted at low-income households.

Moreover, efforts to build trust between citizens and the organizations responsible for natural disaster management, along with educating people about the potential risks and frequency of natural disasters in the region, can help motivate them to be better prepared.

Further reading

Brown, Lisa M., Jolie N. Haun, and Lindsay Peterson. 2014. “A Proposed Disaster Literacy Model.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 8 (3): 267–75. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.43.

Chung, Sung-Chin, and Cherng-Jyh Yen. 2016. “Disaster Prevention Literacy among School Administrators and Teachers: A Study on the Plan for Disaster Prevention and Campus Network Deployment and Experiment in Taiwan.” Journal of Life Sciences 10:203–14. https://doi.org/10.17265/1934-7391/2016.04.006.

Daramola, Oluwole, Oluwafemi Odunsi, and Oluwaseun Olowoporoku. 2018. “The Corridor to Survival: Assessment of Disaster Management Literacy in a Developing Country.” Environmental Quality Management 27 (2): 15–24. https://doi.org/10.1002/tqem.21525.

EM-DAT. 2021. “The International Disaster Database, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Université Catholique de Louvain.” 2021. https://public.emdat.be.

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, Mehdi Feizi, and Hassan F. Gholipour. 2021. “Drought and Property Prices: Empirical Evidence from Provinces of Iran.” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 5:203–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-020-00081-0.

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, and Sven Fischer. 2023. “The Impact of a Large-Scale Natural Disaster on Local Economic Activity: Evidence from the 2003 Bam Earthquake in Iran.” CESifo Working Paper No. 10502 (June). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4477990.

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, Sven Fischer, and Peter Noack. 2024. “Natural Disaster Literacy in Iran: Survey-Based Evidence from Tehran.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 100 (January):104204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104204.

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, Hassan F. Gholipour, and Mostafa Javadian. 2023. “Air Pollution and Internal Migration: Evidence from an Iranian Household Survey.” Empirical Economics 64:223–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02253-1.

Fischer, Sven. 2021. “Post-Disaster Spillovers: Evidence from Iranian Provinces.” Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14(5) (193). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14050193.

Genc, Fatma Zehra, Suzan Yildiz, Emine Kaya, and Naile Bilgili. 2022. “Disaster Literacy Levels of Individuals Aged 18–60 Years and Factors Affecting These Levels: A Web-Based Cross-Sectional Study.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 76 (June):102991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102991.

Türker, Abdullah, and Ufuk Sözcü. 2021. “Examining Natural Disaster Literacy Levels of Pre-Service Geography Teachers.” Journal of Pedagogical Research 5 (2): 207–21. https://doi.org/10.33902/JPR.2021270164.

Zhang, Di, Xiaofang Zhu, Zhengrong Zhou, Xiao Xu, Xueying Ji, and Aihua Gong. 2021. “Research on Disaster Literacy and Affecting Factors of College Students in Central China.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 15 (2): 216–22. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.33.

Tags: , ,

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
    Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
    Professor of Economics of the Middle East, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS) and School of Business and Economics, Marburg, Germany
  • Sven Fischer
    Sven Fischer
    Postdoctoral Researcher, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS), Marburg, Germany
  • Peter Noack
    Peter Noack
    Independent Researcher, Islamabad, Pakistan

Most read

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

What is the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa? How is the current conflict centred in Gaza affecting economies in the region? What are the potential long-term effects of conflict on development? And which strategies can MENA countries adopt to accelerate economic growth? This column outlines the findings in the World Bank’s latest half-yearly MENA Economic Update, which answers these questions and more.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Unleashing the potential of Egyptian exports for sustainable development

Despite several waves of trade liberalisation, Egypt’s integration in the world economy has remained modest. In addition, the structure of its exports has not changed and remains largely dominated by traditional products. This column argues that the government should develop a new export strategy that is forward-looking by taking account not only of the country’s comparative advantage, but also how global demand evolves. The strategy should also be more inclusive and more supportive of sustainable development.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.

Rising influence: women’s empowerment within Arab households

In 2016 and again in 2022, a reliable poll of public opinion in the Arab world asked respondents in seven countries whether they agreed with the statement that ‘a man should have final say in all decisions concerning the family’. As this column reports, the changing balance of responses between the two surveys gives an indication of whether there been progress in the distribution of decision-making within households towards greater empowerment of women.

Macroeconomic policy-making for sustainable development in Egypt

In recent years, economic policy in Egypt has been focused primarily on macroeconomic stabilisation to curb inflation, to reduce the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit, and to increase GDP growth. As this column explains, this has come at the expense of the country’s progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, which is rather modest compared with other economies in the region or at the same income level. Sustainable development needs to be more integrated with the conception and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.