Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Highways to hell: road-building in Iraq has increased the violence

1465
Far from promoting peace and economic development, infrastructure investment programmes in conflict zones can have the opposite effect. This column reports evidence that the billion dollar US road-building programme in Iraq has led to more not less violence.

In a nutshell

One reason that US road-building programme in Iraq has led to more violence could be that during the conflict, reconstructed or newly developed roads have become privileged targets for insurgents.

Another potential reason is that newly built roads may have increased the mobility of insurgents and thus the number and efficiency of attacks.

Spending on roads may also have been subject to the rampant corruption plaguing Iraq, diverting the expected positive effects.

We assume that any investment in the infrastructure of a war-torn country will bring benefits. Development creates an economic boost, and this helps bring stability to turbulent areas – or so the theory goes.

But it wasn’t until I chatted to friends over a beer that I began to wonder otherwise. They had just returned from Afghanistan, and told me that Kabul was more peaceful in winter time, when snow made roads impassable and the city became less violent.

I was intrigued. But getting hold of reliable historical information from Afghanistan in order to investigate was difficult. I turned to Iraq – which sadly has experienced years of violence, with conflict carefully logged by US military and NGOs.

Iraq’s economy, said US Lt General Peter Chiarelli, commander of the Multinational Corps in Iraq back in 2006, was ‘the lynchpin of a peaceful Iraq’. Most Iraqis, he said wanted a better life. ‘Disillusionment, poverty and hopelessness are the breeding grounds for violence.’ And the United States has spent billions of dollars in Iraq to develop infrastructure and invest in the nation’s road network, but little research to date has focused on the impact of road improvement on levels of violence.

What I discovered was utterly counter-intuitive: direct US investment in Iraq’s roads across the country actually led to an increase in the number of attacks. And this raises the questions: why roads in particular, and what is the link between economic development and violence?

US investment in Iraq

In the years following 2003, when US forces invaded and removed Saddam Hussein, Iraq experienced periods of extreme violence as state and military collapsed. During the occupation, sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni Muslims escalated, and Al Qaeda’s presence grew. From 2003 to 2007, some 1,500 civilians were killed every month.

Nearly eight years after Saddam was removed, the United States withdrew all troops in 2014 having peaked at around 170,000 during the height of the occupation. But as sectarian violence between the Shia-led government and Sunni insurgency escalated from 2011 to 2014, the influence of Islamic State grew, and US troops returned.

Amid this violence, our main constraint has been to gain a consistent source of information: we’ve used reliable US military data of attacks from 2003 to 2011 and from their return in 2014, and also accurate records kept by the University of Maryland and NGOs on the ground. We’ve collected information detailing the location, timing, weapon, perpetrator and target of the attack.

Using digitalised road maps, we’ve been able to plot road construction in Iraq between 2003 and 2016 – we’ve aimed to look at how much was invested and how much was actually built.

After the 2003 invasion and subsequent breakdown, Iraqi transport was in a dire state. From 2003 to 2012, US investment in Iraqi infrastructure reached nearly $11.9 billion, and the length of the road network grew by 21% between 2002 and 2011.

Far from being a stabilising force, more roads have actually led to more political attacks – our data analysis has revealed this to be a cause rather than a correlation. This appears to back up analyses from the war in Afghanistan, which shows 86% of violence occurred near a road. What is going on?

Roads becoming targets

One theory is the roads themselves – brand new and perceived to be the creation of an occupying force – become obvious targets. And troops travelling along the main roads are also more vulnerable to roadblocks and ambushes.

Another possible cause is that better transport allows insurgents to move around the country more freely. Iraq is a nation of desert in the south west, mountains in the north east and marshes in the south. New routes, which pass from north to south through Baghdad and west towards the border with Jordan, allow better access to fuel and open up the country to vehicles.

Interestingly, we didn’t find any correlation between levels of investment per kilometre of road and levels of violence. This could be due to corruption – to funds for large projects potentially being siphoned off. Iraq’s construction sector is notoriously corrupt: some 40% of reconstruction projects audited by the US authorities were fraught with waste, fraud and malpractice.

Future investment

I don’t want the main takeaway from this research to be a decision not to invest in the development of war-riven countries. We hope this analysis might shed light on the wider dynamics of development and conflict.

But perhaps development projects should be reassessed: research shows that they must be well tailored and they must be small. Critical analysis shows development projects, as opposed to road building, are most successful at reducing violence when they are small – below $500,000 – and occur amid a strong military presence aided by professional expertise.

I hope further research from our data could shed light on the levels of corruption and underline the need for investors to find well-informed partners on the ground.

This article draws on findings from the paper ‘Highways to Hell are Paved with Good Intentions: Road Building and Violence in Iraq’ by Tamar Gomez, a doctoral student at Imperial College London.

Tags: , , , ,

Most read

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

The evolution of labour supply in Egypt

Egypt stands at a critical point in its demographic and labour market evolution. As this column explains, while fertility rates have dropped, reducing long-term demographic pressures, the ‘echo generation’, children of the youth bulge, will soon enter the labour market, intensifying the need for policies to accelerate job creation. At the same time, participation in the labour force, particularly among women and young people, is declining, partly as a result of discouragement.

Towards a productive, inclusive and green economy in MENA

Decarbonisation of the global economy is a huge opportunity for countries in the Middle East and North Africa. As this column explains, they can supercharge their development by breaking into fast-growing industries that will help the world to reduce its emissions and reach net zero, as well as offering greater employment opportunities and new export lines. Micro, small and medium enterprises in the region can lead the transition to a cleaner and sustainable future, but this may require the formation of clusters of firms that overcome some of the constraints that their limited size could involve.

Participation of Arab countries in global value chains

To what extent are countries in the Arab region participating in the global value chains (GVCs) that now dominate world trade? What are the main determinants of engagement in GVCs? And what are the expected benefits for Arab countries from joining them? This column answers these questions, concluding that it is important to focus on the products in which countries both enjoy a natural comparative advantage and can increase domestic value added in the intermediate and final parts of the production process.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

What is the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa? How is the current conflict centred in Gaza affecting economies in the region? What are the potential long-term effects of conflict on development? And which strategies can MENA countries adopt to accelerate economic growth? This column outlines the findings in the World Bank’s latest half-yearly MENA Economic Update, which answers these questions and more.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

Rising influence: women’s empowerment within Arab households

In 2016 and again in 2022, a reliable poll of public opinion in the Arab world asked respondents in seven countries whether they agreed with the statement that ‘a man should have final say in all decisions concerning the family’. As this column reports, the changing balance of responses between the two surveys gives an indication of whether there been progress in the distribution of decision-making within households towards greater empowerment of women.

Unleashing the potential of Egyptian exports for sustainable development

Despite several waves of trade liberalisation, Egypt’s integration in the world economy has remained modest. In addition, the structure of its exports has not changed and remains largely dominated by traditional products. This column argues that the government should develop a new export strategy that is forward-looking by taking account not only of the country’s comparative advantage, but also how global demand evolves. The strategy should also be more inclusive and more supportive of sustainable development.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.