Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Asset inequality in Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan and Tunisia

1639
Measures of income or consumption alone provide an inadequate representation of living standards and economic inequality across households. This column reports evidence on the distribution of productive assets in three MENA countries plus Ethiopia – and the impact of that wealth on households’ present and future earnings.

In a nutshell

In all four countries, there are significant wealth gaps, especially across urban-rural and educated-uneducated divides, and between demographic groups.

There is evidence of increasing polarisation of wealth ownership in Egypt and Ethiopia, with the poorest 5% of households experiencing declining wealth.

Pre-existing wealth appears to play an important stand-alone role in households’ earnings, consumption and capacity for wealth accumulation.

Studies of the distribution of income and consumption expenditures have been finding modest degrees of inequality in the MENA region. But while the results are legitimate, their shortcoming is that income or consumption alone may not represent households’ living standards and economic inequality across households adequately.

  • First, households derive benefits not only from new purchases, but also from their stock of possessions.
  • Second, ownership of ‘productive assets’, such as means of transport and communication, affects households’ capabilities and incomes.

Wealth also influences households’ decisions over labour market participation and consumption smoothing over years – something that static evaluation of household incomes will not account for, and will be sensitive to. Since wealth is related positively to income, consumption and other capabilities, true economic inequality is likely to exceed inequality measured by income or consumption alone.

In a recent study (Hlasny and Al Azzawi, 2018), we re-examine economic inequality and mobility in three Middle East and North African countries (Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia) plus Ethiopia, by accounting explicitly for households’ stock of productive and non-productive assets, and relating them to their present and future earnings.

Our study relies on high-quality harmonised panel surveys to derive wealth indices based on productive and non-productive assets. To overcome the challenge of comparing wealth indices across countries and years, we benchmark the indices by applying the estimated asset prices in a base survey to other surveys. This allows us to infer differences in asset ownership across countries and years, and in Egypt and Ethiopia, it allows us to analyse changes in household wellbeing over time.

In all four countries, we find significant wealth gaps, especially across urban-rural and educated-uneducated divides. Wealth inequality across individual households also varies between demographic groups. Wealth is typically dispersed more unequally among rural households than among urban households, with the exception of Ethiopia and Tunisia, where the dispersion of wealth is higher in urban areas.

Wealth distributions also differ substantially across the four countries, both in their level and their shape (see Figure 1):

  • In Egypt and Jordan, the distribution is fairly symmetric and bell-shaped without notable clusters of households in either tail.
  • In Tunisia, the dispersion of wealth is wide around the centre and the distribution is bimodal, presumably because of polarisation between rural and urban households, but the tails are rather narrow.
  • In Ethiopia, the distribution has a long right tail, suggesting that a small group of households have a substantially higher wealth than the vast bulk of the country’s population.

In Egypt and Ethiopia – for which we have multiple years of data – we find moderate improvements in asset ownership over time. Wealth rose for the majority of households in Egypt and Ethiopia, but the increases in wealth were modest. Few households changed their relative position over time.

The association between past and current relative wealth was high in both countries, particularly among the wealthiest groups, indicating that middle-class households have a low prospect of rising to the top (see Figure 2).

More specifically, during the period from 1998 to 2012 in Egypt, growth in wealth favoured lower middle-class households, while in Ethiopia during the period from 2011 to 2013, growth was in favour of the richest 30% of households, whose wealth increased further in absolute terms.

In both countries, the poorest 5% of households have experienced declining wealth over the period we study. Combined with the trend among the wealthiest households, this provides some evidence of increasing polarisation of wealth ownership in the two countries.

To understand the dynamics of wealth accumulation and mobility better, we juxtapose wealth distribution with the distribution of households’ earnings and consumption to gauge the degree of multidimensional inequality. We find that while households’ wealth and earnings are positively and highly correlated, they have different distributions and different trends over time. Their joint distributions also differ across the four countries (see Figure 3).

We also find that wealth accumulated in prior years is associated positively with households’ earnings, consumption and wealth retained in later years. Pre-existing wealth thus appears to play an important stand-alone role in households’ earnings, consumption and capacity for wealth accumulation.

Finally, juxtaposing households’ ownership of productive assets against that of non-productive assets, we find them to be substitutes bought by different households for different purposes, with different implications for households’ living standards and inequality across households. The relationship appears to be complex across low- and high-income households.

Productive assets appear to serve as essential resources supplementing low earnings in the MENA countries, but not as clearly in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia and Tunisia, moreover, higher-earnings households appear to invest substantially in productive assets. One possible interpretation is that in these latter countries, poorer households were financially restricted from obtaining adequate stocks of productive assets.

In sum, our study confirms that wealth plays an important role in the composite distribution of multidimensional wellbeing, households’ capabilities and inequality of opportunities. These results can help to inform policy options on how best, or whether at all, such inequality should be tackled. We hope that these initial results will inspire further investigation into the dynamic interplay of factors affecting multidimensional wellbeing and its distribution across households.

Further reading

Hlasny, Vladimir, and Shireen Al Azzawi (2018) ‘Asset Inequality in the MENA: The Missing Dimension?’, ERF Working Paper No. 1177.

 

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.