Economic Research Forum (ERF)

The promise of Middle East sovereign wealth funds

1402
A decade ago, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) burst onto the global financial scene, raising eyebrows as they gobbled up assets in Europe and North America. But, as this Project Syndicate column argues, the world in which SWFs invest has changed, and they must change with it.

In a nutshell

Sovereign investors, including SWFs, are the largest institutional investors in most Arab stock exchanges, holding over 40% of the total market capitalisation in the region.

Middle Eastern SWFs, as owners of full and partial state-owned enterprises, are often active shareholders; yet they are not using their influence to improve governance or support sustainability across the board.

The only way SWFs can safeguard wealth for future generations – fulfilling the purpose for which they were established – is to participate meaningfully in corporate governance.

Over the last 20 years, as strong hydrocarbon revenues have enabled Middle Eastern SWFs to proliferate and grow, a variety of labels have been created to categorize them, including stabilization funds, future generation funds, and investment funds. But most sovereign investors – which also include sizeable social security and pension funds, such as Saudi Arabia’s General Organization for Social Insurance and Public Pensions Agency – belie clear-cut labels.

Few Middle Eastern SWFs are pure financial investors. Because many of them held stakes in state-owned enterprises before becoming financial investors, their holdings tend to be diverse, and often include those same SOEs, as well as real estate and equity stakes in listed and unlisted companies. These holdings also include a growing volume of assets in the developed economies – a reality that has raised eyebrows in Europe and the United States.

To allay concerns over SWFs’ potential political considerations, the International Monetary Fund convened 26 SWFs – over 30% of them from the Middle East – in 2008 to develop the Santiago Principles. The goal was to promote transparent and sound governance of SWFs, ensure that they adequately account for investment risk, and help to maintain global financial stability.

But, since then, the situation has changed substantially. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, investment capital became far scarcer and efforts to ensure SWF transparency and accountability gave way to competition for their capital. Far from a source of apprehension, SWFs have become beneficiaries of fiscal incentives designed to encourage investment in Europe.

At the same time, however, Middle Eastern SWFs have confronted new constraints on their international purchasing power, owing to fiscal austerity at home, induced by falling hydrocarbon prices. Domestically, governments have largely abandoned their efforts to divide sovereign holdings into multiple “pockets” that reflected the funds’ diverse investment objectives and wider political considerations.

The June 2016 announcement of a merger between Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company and Mubadala Development Company – two entities that had quite different objectives and strategies – heralded another change. Consolidation of sovereign assets became the name of the game. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), for example, is now expected to become an almost $2 trillion investment vehicle, with holdings including SOEs and financial investments.

Even prior to this, SWFs in the MENA region held substantial assets in public equity markets at home and abroad. According to a recent analysis by GOVERN (of which I am Managing Director), the state is a significant shareholder in 89 of the region’s 100 largest listed firms – and a majority shareholder in 34. Sovereign investors, including SWFs, are the largest institutional investors in most Arab stock exchanges, holding over 40% of the total market capitalization in the region.

As SWFs consolidate their assets, their attention will likely be focused on domestic exchanges. After all, any further sales of state-owned assets will be conducted through public equity markets, owing to the interest of the region’s policymakers in developing local capital markets and improving the transparency of the privatization process. In times of crisis, SWFs could also be mobilized to inject assets into domestic markets to restore market stability. Tellingly, the mandate of the Turkish sovereign fund includes deepening the domestic capital market.

The time has come to consider more carefully the impact of SWFs on companies’ governance and performance. That issue was not addressed in detail by the Santiago Principles, which focused on SWF transparency. Nor has it been adequately addressed by domestic capital-market regulators, who have focused on developing rules and regulations for listed companies, not the investors who might act as their owners.

Middle Eastern SWFs, as owners of full and partial SOEs, are often active shareholders – and sometimes even manage companies directly, side-stepping boards in the name of greater decision-making efficiency. Yet they are not using their influence to improve governance or support sustainability across the board. As financial investors, SWFs are not active; many do not even vote their shares. This contrasts sharply with the approach of their global peers like Norway’s Norges Bank, which in recent years has fought poorly governed firms and divested from polluting industries like coal.

Middle Eastern and North African SWFs’ reluctance to engage in the governance of their portfolio investments abroad may be a legacy of the “investment protectionism” of the Santiago Principles days. But, in the world of today, investors need to change their ways, engaging more effectively with the companies, both at home and abroad. Otherwise, they may face serious financial and reputational risks, exemplified in QIA’s losses following Volkswagen’s 2015 emissions scandal. The importance of engagement is also highlighted by the terms of recent acquisitions, such as PIF’s purchase of a stake in Uber, which gave it the right to nominate a board member to represent its interests.

It is with regard to domestic firms that Middle Eastern SWFs have the most urgent responsibility, especially considering that most other institutional investors in these markets are also inactive when it comes to corporate governance. As some of largest public equity investors in the region, SWFs should be encouraged to take more responsibility for their investments. Indeed, the only way SWFs can safeguard wealth for future generations – fulfilling the purpose for which they were established – is to participate meaningfully in corporate governance.

This article was originally published by Project Syndicate. Read the original article.

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.